Are There Really 500,000 More Home Sellers Than Buyers as Redfin states?

A Data-Driven Reality Check for 2025

You may have seen the splashy headline: “The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record.” 🚨 A line like that can freeze both house-hunters and would-be sellers in their tracks. But does the claim survive a closer look at actual market data?

Below, we’ll:

1. Deconstruct the Redfin model behind the 500 K statistic.
2. Compare it with hard counts from the Federal Reserve and the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
3. Offer clear takeaways for buyers, sellers, and real-estate professionals in 2025.

1.Where the 500 K Number Comes From

Redfin’s research team publicly acknowledges they had to build a proxy for “active buyers.” Their methodology blends listing data with estimates of how many shoppers are likely to go under contract in a given month. It’s a reasonable attempt to quantify something the MLS doesn’t track—but like any model, it relies on assumptions about search behavior, conversion time-lines, and seasonality. That makes the headline more of a trend spotlight than a literal head-count. redfin.com

2.What the Raw Numbers Actually Show

Quick math:

• If the average house-hunt lasts ~90 days, the pool of active buyers at any moment ≈ 3 × monthly closings = ~1.0 million shoppers.
• That places the real seller-to-buyer gap somewhere between 0 and 400 K, much narrower—and it swings by region.

Why Inventory Isn’t the Only Story

Even a small surplus of listings can feel huge when affordability is under strain:

• Mortgage rates remain in the high-6 % to low-7 % range—more than double pandemic lows.
• Wage growth hasn’t fully kept pace with price appreciation, especially in entry-level segments.
• Monthly payment power is the real pinch point; buyers who want a home can’t always qualify for the one they love. businessinsider.com

Translation: today’s hesitation is driven less by “too many houses” and more by “can I swing the payment?”

3.What This Means for You

🎯 Buyers

• Run the numbers, not the headlines. Payment comfort should drive your home-search budget, not a national seller-gap stat.
• Get fully pre-approved (income, assets, and credit verified) to act fast when opportunity knocks—especially on well-priced homes that still attract multiple offers.
• Consider rate-buys or ARM options to boost affordability; many lenders now pair these with no-cost refinance promises once rates fall.

🔑 Sellers

• Price intelligently. Over-list and you’ll join the growing pile of price-cuts; nail market value and you can still move quickly.
• Highlight affordability hacks. Offer a temporary rate buy-down or seller-paid closing costs to widen the buyer pool without a deep price cut.
• Leverage local data. Your neighborhood’s absorption rate matters more than a click-bait national gap.

🤝 Real-Estate Pros & Referral Partners

• Use charts, not chatter. Single-slide visuals of FRED inventory vs. NAR sales make a stronger case than repeating the Redfin headline.
• Educate on affordability levers—from down-payment assistance to commission-gap strategies under the new NAR rules.
• Stay hyper-local. Weekly MLS snapshots beat month-old national press releases every time.

Bottom Line

Yes, sellers currently outnumber buyers—but the spread is nowhere near the dramatic 500,000 figure circulating online. The bigger story is that affordability, not inventory, is shaping 2025’s housing landscape. Armed with real data, you can move with confidence whether you’re listing, buying, or advising clients.

Ready to Turn Numbers Into a Strategy?

As a Certified Mortgage Advisor serving Nashville and the wider Tennessee market, I turn raw data into custom financing roadmaps—so you can buy or sell without the guesswork.

📞 Schedule your pressure-free strategy call
📧 Or email me at jpjones@nexamortgage.com

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Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Zillow, Redfin Research.

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